Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
